What is speculation?

April 14, 2018

“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”
Source: Benjamin Graham, “The Intelligent Investor”

Good (Bad) Banks and Good (Bad) Investments: At the right price... May 7, 2023
In my last post, I looked at banking as a business, and used a simple banking framework to advance the notion that the key ingredient tying together the banks that have failed so far in 2023 is an absence of stickiness in deposits, created partially by depositor and deposit characteristics (older are stickier than younger) […]
Breach of Trust: Decoding the Banking Crisis May 5, 2023
In March 2023, the fall of Silicon Valley Bank shocked investors not only because it was unforeseen, but also because of the speed with which it unfolded. That failure has had a domino effect, with Signature Bank falling soon after, followed by Credit Suisse in April 2023 and by First Republic last week. The banks […]
Data Update 7 for 2023: Dividends, Buybacks and Cash Flows March 8, 2023
This is the last of my data update posts for 2023, and in this one, I will focus on dividends and buybacks, perhaps the most most misunderstood and misplayed element of corporate finance. To illustrate the heat that buybacks evoke, consider two stories in the last two weeks where they have been in the news. […]
Data Update 6 for 2023: A Wake up call for the Indebted? February 27, 2023
We have an uneasy relationship with debt, both in our personal and business lives. While it is a financial decision, it is one that is freighted with moral overtones, since almost every religion inveighs against debt's sins, labeling those who lend as sinners and those who borrow as weak. That may reflect the concern that […]
Data Update 5 for 2023: The Earnings Test February 16, 2023
As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to normalcy on many fronts, as treasury rates reverted back to pre-2008 levels, and risk capital discovered that risk has a downside. During the course of the year, investors also rediscovered that the […]
Data Update 4 for 2023: Country Risk - Measures and Implications February 12, 2023
I describe myself as a dabbler, and it does get in the way of my best laid plans. A few weeks ago, I posted my first data update pulling together what I had learned from looking at the data in 2023, and promised many more on the topic. In the month since, I have added […]
Control, Complexity and Politics: Deconstructing the Adani Affair! February 5, 2023
The India Rising story hit some turbulence last week, as one of its biggest corporate success stories, the Adani Group, was hit with a report from Hindenburg Research, an investing group that specializes in targeting and shorting companies that it believes have dubious accounting and business practices. In response, people have fallen into two groups, […]
Disagreements and First Principles: The Pushback on my Tesla Valuation February 2, 2023
I wrote about my most recent valuation of Tesla just over a week ago, and as has always been the case when I value this company, I have heard from both sides of the Tesla divide. Some of you believe that I am being far too generous in my forecasts of revenues and profitability for […]
Data Update 3 for 2023: Inflation and Interest Rates January 30, 2023
If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. The US treasury market, considered by some still as a safe haven, was anything but safe or a haven, especially at the long maturities, as long term rates […]

Toys 'R' Us brand may be brought back to life October 3, 2018
Bankrupt toy retailer tells bankruptcy court it is looking at possibly reviving the Toys 'R' Us and Babies 'R' Us brands.
JCPenney names Jill Soltau as its new CEO October 2, 2018
Read full story for latest details.
S&P downgrades debt-riddled GE and GE Capital October 2, 2018
New General Electric boss Larry Culp just got a fresh reminder of the debt-riddled balance sheet he's inheriting.
Goldman Sachs slants research to help Democrats, top White House adviser says October 2, 2018
Kevin Hassett, President Donald Trump's top economic adviser, suggested Goldman Sachs may be slanting its economic research to help Democrats ahead of the midterm elections.
Meet GE's new boss: Can Larry Culp right the ship? October 1, 2018
General Electric is turning to a outsider to clean up a mess that took decades to create.
Land O'Lakes CEO Beth Ford, from the cornfield to the C-suite October 1, 2018
Land O'Lakes CEO Beth Ford charts her career path, from her first job to becoming the first openly gay CEO at a Fortune 500 company in an interview with CNN's Boss Files.
GE unexpectedly removes its CEO October 1, 2018
Read full story for latest details.
The next big test for Elon Musk arrives this week September 30, 2018
Read full story for latest details.
The S&P 500 achieves best quarter since 2013 September 28, 2018
The longest bull market in history is back on track.

Microsoft 365 down for thousands of users: Downdetector June 5, 2023
MICROSOFT’S product suite that includes Word and Excel was down for more than 15,000 users on Monday (Jun 5), according to outage tracking website Downdetector.com.
China Everbright Water announces breakthrough in ‘asset-light’ business June 5, 2023
MAINBOARD-listed China Everbright Water, which offers water environment management solutions, on Monday (Jun 5) said a consortium it is leading has secured a project that that marks the progress the company has made to develop its asset-light business.
Private credit poised for multi-trillion-dollar boom, but it could get ugly soon June 5, 2023
FIRST Came the debt specialists and the private equity firms. Then, hedge funds and wealth managers saw an opening. Now everyone from sovereign wealth funds to venture capitalists are spouting Wall Street’s favourite buzzword: private credit.
British Airways tells 35,000 staff their data was hacked June 5, 2023
BRITISH Airways told its staff of around 35,000 that their personal information may have been compromised in a cyberattack on the airline’s payroll provider, in the latest technology setback for the UK airline.
Intraco, Jadason Enterprises to enter SGX watch-list from Jun 6 June 5, 2023
INTRACO Limited and Jadason Enterprises, which are both listed on the mainboard of the Singapore Exchange, will be placed on the watch-list from Tuesday (Jun 6).

Premarket: 7 things to know before the bell
Read full story for latest details.
Why it's time for investors to go on defense
Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital, explains why investors should start treading lightly.
Barnes & Noble stock soars 20% as it explores a sale
Barnes & Noble jumped more than 20% after it said it would review a sale of the troubled company.
Aston Martin falls 5% in London IPO
Aston Martin is joining the ranks of listed automakers with an IPO that values the British company at more than $5 billion.
Honda teams up with GM on self-driving cars
Read full story for latest details.
Toys 'R' Us brand may be brought back to life
Bankrupt toy retailer tells bankruptcy court it is looking at possibly reviving the Toys 'R' Us and Babies 'R' Us brands.
Tencent Music plans to go public on US exchange
It dominates the music streaming market in China through its QQ Music, KuGou and Kuwo platforms.
JCPenney names Jill Soltau as its new CEO
Read full story for latest details.
Amazon announces $15 minimum wage for all US employees
Read full story for latest details.
S&P downgrades debt-riddled GE and GE Capital
New General Electric boss Larry Culp just got a fresh reminder of the debt-riddled balance sheet he's inheriting.