What is speculation?

April 14, 2018

“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”
Source: Benjamin Graham, “The Intelligent Investor”

Catastrophic Risk: Investing and Business Implications February 16, 2024
In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers on companies that I should value next. While I don't have the time or the bandwidth to value all of the suggested companies, a reader from Iceland, a couple of weeks ago, made a suggestion on a […]
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023! February 9, 2024
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these companies by investors and the media, […]
Data Update 5 for 2024: Profitability - The End Game for Business? January 31, 2024
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital. Since businesses […]
Data Update 4 for 2024: Danger and Opportunity - Bringing Risk into the Equation! January 28, 2024
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023, driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound. In this post, I look at risk, a central theme in finance and investing, but one that is surprisingly […]
Data Update 3 for 2024: Interest Rates in 2023 - A Rule-breaking Year! January 25, 2024
In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery. In this post, I look at interest rates, both in the government […]
Data Update 2 for 2024: A Stock Comeback - Winning the Expectations Game! January 17, 2024
Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation out of control and a recession on the horizon. While stocks had their ups and downs during the year, they ended the year strong, and recouped, at least in the aggregate, most of the losses from 2022. That […]
The School Bell Rings: Time for Class! January 11, 2024
Continuing an annual ritual of long standing, ahead of starting my spring teaching at NYU starting in a couple of weeks, I would like to invite you, if you are interested, to come along for the ride. I know! I know! Most of you are not enrolled at NYU, paying nosebleed prices, and that is […]
Data Update 1 for 2024: The data speaks, but what does it say? January 5, 2024
In January 1993, I was valuing a retail company, and I found myself wondering what a reasonable margin was for a firm operating in the retail business. In pursuit of an answer to that question, I used company-specific data from Value Line, one of the earliest entrants into the investment data business, to compute […]
The Difference Makers: Key Person(s) Valuation December 10, 2023
Can one person make a difference to the value of a business? Of course, and with small businesses, especially those built around personal services (a doctor or plumber’s practice), it is part of the valuation process, where the key person is valued or at least priced and incorporated into valuation. While that effect tends […]

Toys 'R' Us brand may be brought back to life October 3, 2018
Bankrupt toy retailer tells bankruptcy court it is looking at possibly reviving the Toys 'R' Us and Babies 'R' Us brands.
JCPenney names Jill Soltau as its new CEO October 2, 2018
Read full story for latest details.
S&P downgrades debt-riddled GE and GE Capital October 2, 2018
New General Electric boss Larry Culp just got a fresh reminder of the debt-riddled balance sheet he's inheriting.
Goldman Sachs slants research to help Democrats, top White House adviser says October 2, 2018
Kevin Hassett, President Donald Trump's top economic adviser, suggested Goldman Sachs may be slanting its economic research to help Democrats ahead of the midterm elections.
Meet GE's new boss: Can Larry Culp right the ship? October 1, 2018
General Electric is turning to a outsider to clean up a mess that took decades to create.
Land O'Lakes CEO Beth Ford, from the cornfield to the C-suite October 1, 2018
Land O'Lakes CEO Beth Ford charts her career path, from her first job to becoming the first openly gay CEO at a Fortune 500 company in an interview with CNN's Boss Files.
GE unexpectedly removes its CEO October 1, 2018
Read full story for latest details.
The next big test for Elon Musk arrives this week September 30, 2018
Read full story for latest details.
The S&P 500 achieves best quarter since 2013 September 28, 2018
The longest bull market in history is back on track.

Honda to spend US$11 billion on EV strategy in Canada April 25, 2024
HONDA Motor will spend C$15 billion (S$14.9 billion) to build out its electric-vehicle supply chain in Canada, with billions of US dollars of financial aid from government, as the Japanese automaker seeks to tap long-term demand in the region.
GlaxoSmithKline sues Pfizer and BioNTech over Covid-19 vaccine technology April 25, 2024
GLAXOSMITHKLINE sued Pfizer and BioNTech in Delaware federal court on Thursday (Apr 25), accusing them of infringing GSK patents related to messenger RNA (mRNA) technology in the companies’ blockbuster Covid-19 vaccines.
Mapletree Industrial Trust Q4 DPU rises 0.9% to S$0.0336 April 25, 2024
MAPLETREE Industrial Trust (MIT) on Thursday (Apr 25) posted a distribution per unit (DPU) of S$0.0336 for the fourth quarter ended Mar 31, up 0.9 per cent from S$0.0333 in the corresponding year-ago period.
Nasdaq’s profit falls as shaky economy keeps IPO revival elusive April 25, 2024
NASDAQ’S profit fell for the first time in a year as firms continue to wait for the economy to stabilise before going public.
iFast Q1 net profit surges on ePension unit performance April 25, 2024
FINANCIAL services company iFast Corp on Thursday (Apr 25) posted a 387.4 per cent spike in net profit to S$14.5 million for its first quarter ended Mar 31, 2024, up from S$3 million previously.

Premarket: 7 things to know before the bell
Read full story for latest details.
Why it's time for investors to go on defense
Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital, explains why investors should start treading lightly.
Barnes & Noble stock soars 20% as it explores a sale
Barnes & Noble jumped more than 20% after it said it would review a sale of the troubled company.
Aston Martin falls 5% in London IPO
Aston Martin is joining the ranks of listed automakers with an IPO that values the British company at more than $5 billion.
Honda teams up with GM on self-driving cars
Read full story for latest details.
Toys 'R' Us brand may be brought back to life
Bankrupt toy retailer tells bankruptcy court it is looking at possibly reviving the Toys 'R' Us and Babies 'R' Us brands.
Tencent Music plans to go public on US exchange
It dominates the music streaming market in China through its QQ Music, KuGou and Kuwo platforms.
JCPenney names Jill Soltau as its new CEO
Read full story for latest details.
Amazon announces $15 minimum wage for all US employees
Read full story for latest details.
S&P downgrades debt-riddled GE and GE Capital
New General Electric boss Larry Culp just got a fresh reminder of the debt-riddled balance sheet he's inheriting.