What is speculation?

April 14, 2018

“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”
Source: Benjamin Graham, “The Intelligent Investor”

Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities! January 22, 2023
It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget about the latter during market booms, they recur at regular intervals, if for no other reason than to remind us that risk is not an abstraction, and that stocks don't always win, even in […]
Data Update 1 for 2023: Setting the table! January 6, 2023
In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each spring, and in this one, I will start on the first of a series of posts that I make at the start of each year, where I look at data, both macro and company-level. In […]
A Return to Teaching: The Spring 2023 Edition December 21, 2022
If, as you read this post, it feels like you have read it or a close variant before, it is because you have. Each year, ahead of teaching my classes at NYU's Stern School of Business in the spring, I invite readers to accompany me on my journey, and this year is no different. […]
META Lesson 3: Tell me a story! November 15, 2022
In my first two posts on Facebook, I noted that its most recent earnings report, and the market reaction to it, offers an opportunity for us to talk about bigger issues. I started by examining corporate governance, or its absence, and argued that some of the frustration that investors in Facebook feel about their views […]
META Lesson 2: Accounting Inconsistencies and Consequences November 10, 2022
In my last post, I used Facebook's recent troubles to talk about the importance of corporate governance, and how we, as investors, have abandoned the power to change management at many younger tech companies in return for being able to invest in young tech companies, with growth potential and well-regarded founders. In this post, I […]
META Lesson 1: Corporate Governance November 4, 2022
As we get deeper into earnings season for the third quarter of 2022, the biggest negative surprises are coming from technology companies, with the tech giants leading the way. Investors, used to a decade of better-than-expected earnings and rising stock prices at these companies, have been blindsided by unexpected bad news in earnings reports, and […]
Earnings and Cash Flows: A Primer on Free Cash Flow October 25, 2022
It is never pleasant to be in the midst of a market correction, but a market correction does operate as a cleanser for excesses that enter into even the most disciplined investors' playbooks in the good times. This correction has been no exception, as the threat of losing investment capital has focused the minds of […]
Reaping the Whirlwind: A September 2022 Inflation Update! September 26, 2022
In my early 2021 posts on inflation, I argued that while the higher inflation that we were just starting to see could be explained by COVID and supply chain issues, prudence on the part of policy makers required that it be taken as a long term threat and dealt with quickly. Not only did they […]
A Zomato 2022 Update: Value, Pricing and the Gap July 27, 2022
On July 21, 2021, I valued Zomato just ahead of its initial public offering at about ₹41 per share. The market clearly had a very different view, as the stock premiered at ₹74 per share and soared into the stratosphere, peaking at ₹169 per share in late 2021. The last few months have been rocky, as the price […]

Toys 'R' Us brand may be brought back to life October 3, 2018
Bankrupt toy retailer tells bankruptcy court it is looking at possibly reviving the Toys 'R' Us and Babies 'R' Us brands.
JCPenney names Jill Soltau as its new CEO October 2, 2018
Read full story for latest details.
S&P downgrades debt-riddled GE and GE Capital October 2, 2018
New General Electric boss Larry Culp just got a fresh reminder of the debt-riddled balance sheet he's inheriting.
Goldman Sachs slants research to help Democrats, top White House adviser says October 2, 2018
Kevin Hassett, President Donald Trump's top economic adviser, suggested Goldman Sachs may be slanting its economic research to help Democrats ahead of the midterm elections.
Meet GE's new boss: Can Larry Culp right the ship? October 1, 2018
General Electric is turning to a outsider to clean up a mess that took decades to create.
Land O'Lakes CEO Beth Ford, from the cornfield to the C-suite October 1, 2018
Land O'Lakes CEO Beth Ford charts her career path, from her first job to becoming the first openly gay CEO at a Fortune 500 company in an interview with CNN's Boss Files.
GE unexpectedly removes its CEO October 1, 2018
Read full story for latest details.
The next big test for Elon Musk arrives this week September 30, 2018
Read full story for latest details.
The S&P 500 achieves best quarter since 2013 September 28, 2018
The longest bull market in history is back on track.

Asia: Hong Kong returns to lead most markets higher January 26, 2023
MOST Asian markets rose on Thursday as the majority returned from the Lunar New Year break on an optimistic note, with inflation slowing and central banks hinting at a lighter approach to tackling prices.
Brokers’ take: Maybank upgrades Frencken Group to ‘buy’, says worst is over January 26, 2023
MAYBANK Research has upgraded its call for Frencken Group from “sell” to “buy” on Wednesday (Jan 25), stating that the “worst is over”.
Tesla gets US$5b credit line in sign it’s nearing investment-grade status January 26, 2023
TESLA has secured a new US$5 billion revolving credit facility with banks, in the latest sign that the company is nearing investment-grade status.
Indonesia’s US$20b deal to cut coal not enough, says Ember January 26, 2023
A LANDMARK US$20 billion deal to help fund Indonesia’s transition away from coal isn’t enough to put the country on track to meet global climate goals, according to energy think tank Ember.
Musk says China rivals ‘work hardest, smartest’ January 26, 2023
DETROIT? Nope. Germany? Nein. Elon Musk sees the toughest competition for Tesla in China, home of the company he expects “most likely to be second” in electric vehicles.