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January 21, 2020

RSS Aswath Damodaran’s Musings on Markets

  • Data Update 1 for 2020: Setting the table January 13, 2020
    Starting in the early 1990s, I have spent the first week or two of every new year playing my version of Moneyball, downloading raw market and accounting data on publicly traded companies and using that data to compute operating, pricing and risk metrics for them. This year, I got a later start than usual on […]
  • The Market is Huge! Revisiting the Big Market Delusion December 30, 2019
    For the high-profile IPOs that have reached the market in 2019, with apologies to Charles Dickens for stealing and mangling his words, it has been the best and the worst of years. On the one hand, you have seen companies like Uber and Slack, each less than a decade old, trading at market capitalizations in […]
  • A Teaching Manifesto: An Invitation to my Spring 2020 classes December 19, 2019
    If you have been reading my blog for long enough, you should have seen this post coming. Every semester that I teach, and it has only been in the spring in the last few years, I issue an invitation to anyone interested to attend my classes online. While I cannot offer you credit for taking […]
  • Regime Change and Value: A Follow up Post on Aramco November 19, 2019
    In my post from a couple of days ago, I valued Aramco at about $1.65 trillion, but I qualified that valuation by noting that this was the value before adjusting for regime change concerns. That comment seems to have been lost in the reading, and it is perhaps because (a) I made it at the […]
  • A coming out party for the world's most valuable company: Aramco's long awaited IPO! November 18, 2019
    In a year full of interesting initial public offerings, many of which I have looked at in this blog, it is fitting that the last IPO I value this year will be the most unique, a company that after its offering is likely to be the most valuable company in the world, the instant it […]
  • The Softbank-WeWork End Game: Savior Economics or Sunk Cost Problem? November 15, 2019
    Since my pre-IPO post on WeWork, where I valued the company ahead of its then imminent offering, much has happened. The company’s IPO collapsed under the weight of its own pricing contradictions, and after a near-death experience, Softbank emerged as the savior, investing an additional $ 8 billion in the company, and taking a much […]
  • Disrupting the IPO Process: Challenging the Banker-run Going-Public Model! October 18, 2019
    In the age of disruption, where young companies are challenging the status quo and upending conventional businesses, it was only a matter of time before they turned their attention to the process by which they are taken public. For decades, the standard operating procedure for a company going public has been to use a banker […]
  • IPO Lessons for Public Market Investors October 11, 2019
    This year, I have found myself returning repeatedly to the IPO well, as high profile companies have chosen to go public, and like a moth to a flame, I have been drawn to value them. There was much enthusiasm at the start of 2019 that this would be a blockbuster year for IPOs, not just […]
  • US Equities: Resilient Force or Case Study in Denial? October 1, 2019
    As readers of this blog know, I don't write much about whether stocks collectively are over or under priced, other than my usual start of the year posts about markets or in response to market crisis. There are two reasons. The first is that there is nothing new or insightful that I can bring to […]

RSS Dr David Kass commentary

  • One Year Percentage Change in Price for 6 Largest Market Capitalizations vs. S&P 500 January 15, 2020
    (1) Apple – $1.39 trillion — +108% (2) Microsoft – $1.24 trillion — +59% (3) Google – $987 billion — +36% (4) Amazon – $927 billion — +15% (5) Facebook – $625 billion — +50% (6) Berkshire Hathaway – $555 billion — + 17% S&P 500 — +30%  
  • 6 Largest Market Capitalizations January 9, 2020
    6 largest market capitalizations:   (1) Apple — $1.35 trillion (2) Microsoft — $1.22 trillion (3) Google — $969 billion (4) Amazon — $938 billion (5) Facebook — $614 billion (6) Berkshire Hathaway — $553 billion
  • All the Other Warren Buffetts January 6, 2020
    MANY ARE GIVEN THE TITLE. BUT WHO DESERVES IT? Jan 06, 2020 Finance SMITH BRAIN TRUST –  Maryland Smith’s David Kass can hardly keep up with all the Warren Buffetts that are rumored to be out there at any given time. There has been Yang Liu, the “Warren Buffett of China,” and Ratan Tata, a so-called “Warren Buffett […]
  • S&P 500 Total Return Up in 80% of Past 78 Years (1942-2019) January 6, 2020
    Over the past 78 years (1942-2019), the S&P 500 (with dividends included) has gone up in 80% of those years. S&P 500 Total Returns by Year Year Total Return 2019 31.49 2018 -4.38 2017 21.83 2016 11.96 2015 1.38 2014 13.69 2013 32.39 2012 16.00 2011 2.11 2010 15.06 2009 26.46 2008 -37.00 2007 5.49 […]
  • My Yahoo Finance Live Interview on Carlos Ghosn – January 2, 2020 January 2, 2020
    Highlight: Turkey is investigating Carlos Ghosn's escape from Japan. "This could discourage investment or American and other companies… locating to Japan," business professor @DrDavidKass says. "And it raises a major issue certainly with respect to corporate governance." pic.twitter.com/ZTIVET7pvW — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) January 2, 2020
  • Happy 96th Birthday, Charlie Munger! January 1, 2020
    Today is Berkshire Hathaway’s Vice Chairman Charlie Munger’s 96th birthday.  Happy Birthday, Charlie!   (Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett is 89.) Happy New Year Everyone!    
  • Berkshire Hathaway’s Stake in Apple Doubles in Value December 27, 2019
    At today’s closing price of $289.91 for Apple, Berkshire’s 5.4% stake in the company is valued at $72 billion, double its $36 billion investment.  One of Berkshire’s portfolio managers, Ted Weschler or Todd Combs, made Berkshire’s initial purchases in Apple during the first quarter of 2016. Since then, however, the vast majority of additional purchases […]
  • Is Todd Combs a Possible Successor to Warren Buffett as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway? December 26, 2019
    On December 23, Berkshire Hathaway announced that Todd Combs, one of Warren Buffett’s portfolio managers, will become CEO of its Geico automobile insurance business on January 1, 2020.  Todd Combs will likely be reporting to Ajit Jain,  who heads up all of Berkshire’s insurance operations. This appointment represents a major increase in responsibility for Combs […]
  • 55% of Americans Own Stocks December 23, 2019
    55% of Americans own stocks, directly or through 401(k)s, individual retirement accounts, mutual funds, or other means. Gallup found 55% of Americans reporting they own stock in April 2019, similar to the average of 54% Gallup has measured since 2010. This is based on a question asking respondents about any individual stocks they may own, […]

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What is speculation?

April 14, 2018

“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”
Source: Benjamin Graham, “The Intelligent Investor”

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